{"id":8178,"date":"2025-09-06T22:11:00","date_gmt":"2025-09-07T01:11:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/vinq.us\/?p=8178"},"modified":"2025-11-13T18:18:58","modified_gmt":"2025-11-13T21:18:58","slug":"cenarios-nao-criveis-ruptura-hipotetica","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/vinq.us\/en\/cenarios-nao-criveis-ruptura-hipotetica\/","title":{"rendered":"Technical Criteria for Identifying Unbelievable Scenarios in Hypothetical Breakups"},"content":{"rendered":"<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"8178\" class=\"elementor elementor-8178\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-4b827cf elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"4b827cf\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-9586597\" data-id=\"9586597\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-d61d741 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"d61d741\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In certain hypothetical rupture studies, the analysis of extreme scenarios may indicate the possibility of failures associated with very specific combinations of events, such as the total obstruction of spillway structures combined with exceptionally frequent rainfall.<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In these situations, although it is possible to identify the theoretical occurrence of <\/span><b>overtopping<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, the calculated probability is often at levels below 10\u207b\u2076 per year. Such low probabilities are classified as <\/span><b>negligible risk<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> according to the concept of <\/span><b>ALARP<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, even though, due to regulatory requirements, the failure mode needs to be formally considered.<\/span><\/p><h2>\u00a0<\/h2><h2><b>Believable and Unbelievable Scenarios<\/b><\/h2><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The discussion about the credibility of scenarios leads to the distinction between the so-called <\/span><b>credible scenarios<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> and <\/span><b>not credible<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> in hypothetical rupture studies.<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A scenario is considered <\/span><b>credible<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> when it is physically plausible, that is:<\/span><\/p><ul><li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">When the failure mechanism can in fact occur due to the existing materials and construction arrangements;<\/span><\/li><li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">When supported by recognized rupture mechanisms, such as <\/span><b>overtopping, instability, liquefaction or piping<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">;<\/span><\/li><li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">When it is compatible with the current conditions of the dam, including <\/span><b>geometry, operation, drainage, maintenance and instrumentation<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.<\/span><\/li><\/ul><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">On the other hand, a scenario <\/span><b>not credible<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> is one that violates fundamental physical principles, such as simulating rupture volumes greater than the reservoir capacity or erosion crossing non-erodible or more resistant layers, such as sound rock or high-resistance rockfill without plausible justification.<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">They also qualify as <\/span><b>not credible<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> scenarios that require combinations of extremely low probability events, less than 10\u207b\u2076 per year, or that are in contradiction with evidence from inspections and audits carried out, as highlighted by <\/span><b>ICOLD, CDA, FERC, FEMA and HSE-UK<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.<\/span><\/p><h2>\u00a0<\/h2><h2><b>The ALARP Concept<\/b><\/h2><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The concept <\/span><b>ALARP<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> (As Low As Reasonably Practicable), internationally consolidated, reinforces the distinction between credible and non-credible scenarios by classifying risks into three zones:<\/span><\/p><ol><li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>Unacceptable zone<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> \u2013 requires immediate intervention.<\/span><\/li><li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>Tolerable zone<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> \u2013 acceptable risk only if reduced to the limit of what is reasonably practicable.<\/span><\/li><li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>Widely acceptable zone<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> \u2013 risk so low that it does not require additional measures.<\/span><\/li><\/ol><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The practical application of this concept establishes that coexistence with negligible risks is admissible, as long as it is demonstrated that additional reductions would imply disproportionate efforts in relation to the gains achieved.<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In Brazil, the <\/span><b>ANM Resolution No. 95\/2022<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> adopts the same understanding, defining ALARP as risk &quot;as low as reasonably achievable.&quot; In this framework, coexistence is permissible as long as there are continuous reduction efforts to the point where additional measures become disproportionate in terms of cost, feasibility, or additional benefit.<\/span><\/p><h2>\u00a0<\/h2><h2><b>International References and Technical Guidelines<\/b><\/h2><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">International experience demonstrates convergence regarding the unnecessary, and even inappropriate, need to model ruptures under impossible physical or statistical conditions. The main technical guidelines recognize that only scenarios with plausible mechanisms and statistically significant probabilities should be considered in rupture studies, while unlikely events do not contribute to safety and can distort risk assessment.<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">As an example, the following international references stand out, which corroborate the understanding that scenarios with a probability lower than 10\u207b\u2076 should be considered <\/span><b>not credible<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">:<\/span><\/p><ul><li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">ICOLD Bulletins No. 130 (2005) and No. 154 (2016).<\/span><\/li><li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Canadian Dam Association (CDA, 2013 and 2021) Guidelines.<\/span><\/li><li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">FERC Guide (2015).<\/span><\/li><li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">FEMA Manual P-333 (2004).<\/span><\/li><li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">UK Health and Safety Executive document \u201cReducing Risks, Protecting People\u201d (2001).<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><br \/><br \/><\/span><\/li><\/ul><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">These documents establish that the definition of failure scenarios must be based on plausible risk mechanisms, distinguishing credible failure modes from those whose statistical or physical framework is in the realm of the improbable.<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">THE <\/span><b>ICOLD<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, for example, emphasizes that simulating ruptures under statistically impossible or physically implausible conditions is unnecessary and even counterproductive. <\/span><b>CDA<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> defines as credible only those failure modes that are supported by realistic physical mechanisms, classifying as non-credible those that depend on multiple simultaneous failures or probabilities lower than 10\u207b\u2076.<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">American agencies, such as <\/span><b>FERC<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> and <\/span><b>FEMA<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, reinforce the same guideline by establishing that breaches incompatible with the geology, construction and operation of a dam should not be modeled, as they represent unrealistic conditions.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-cef89b1 elementor-widget-divider--view-line elementor-widget elementor-widget-divider\" data-id=\"cef89b1\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"divider.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-divider\">\n\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-divider-separator\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-e5964bf elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"e5964bf\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Given this set of references, it can be seen that the adequate definition of <\/span><b>\u201cworst case scenario credible\u201d<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> It is essential to balance the protection of downstream communities with technical rationality and regulatory proportionality.<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Applying this principle avoids simulations of physically or statistically impossible ruptures, allowing rupture studies to maintain their focus on plausible and effectively safety-relevant situations.<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In alignment with <\/span><b>ICOLD, CDA, FERC, USBR\/USACE, ANCOLD and HSE<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, it is found that the concept <\/span><b>ALARP<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> is widely accepted as an international benchmark for distinguishing credible from non-credible scenarios in hypothetical rupture studies.<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Thus, it is concluded that the correct application of the ALARP concept ensures the protection of potentially affected populations, guarantees technical rationality in the definition of rupture scenarios and maintains regulatory compliance with the best dam safety engineering practices in Brazil and internationally.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-3f8ca22 e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"3f8ca22\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-b7b6978 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"b7b6978\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Authors:<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-07725f1 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"07725f1\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-543437c e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"543437c\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-6d36167 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"6d36167\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\" 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data-srcset=\"https:\/\/vinq.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/1693149511320.jpeg 800w, https:\/\/vinq.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/1693149511320-300x300.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/vinq.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/1693149511320-150x150.jpeg 150w, https:\/\/vinq.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/1693149511320-12x12.jpeg 12w, https:\/\/vinq.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/1693149511320-320x320.jpeg 320w, https:\/\/vinq.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/1693149511320-760x760.jpeg 760w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 780px) 100vw, 780px\" data-aspect=\"1\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-0edf9dc e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"0edf9dc\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-8779e0a elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"8779e0a\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">John Paul dos Santos<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-3eb6596 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"3eb6596\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Bachelor in Mining Engineering (UFMG), Master in Civil Engineering and Management (University of Glasgow), Specialist in Geotechnical Engineering and Project Management.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-e530deb elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"e530deb\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Mining Engineer specializing in geotechnics and project management, an international reference in dams and geotechnical structures applied to mining.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-2e64a1e elementor-align-left elementor-widget elementor-widget-button\" data-id=\"2e64a1e\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"button.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-button-wrapper\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-button elementor-button-link elementor-size-sm\" href=\"http:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/joaopaulodossantos\" target=\"_blank\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-button-content-wrapper\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-button-icon\">\n\t\t\t\t<svg aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"e-font-icon-svg e-fab-linkedin\" viewbox=\"0 0 448 512\" 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data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Matheus Vicentini<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-eee69ee elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"eee69ee\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Civil Engineer (Unilavras), Specialist in Geotechnical Engineering (PUC Minas).<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-4a60d53 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"4a60d53\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Civil Engineer with experience in geotechnics applied 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